Continuing my Arctic sea ice loss videos, I discuss a 2016 paper arguing that internal variability of the climate system is very large, and thinner ice is even more sensitive to internal variability. It suggests that we cannot predict complete loss of Arctic sea ice within a time window of less than 20 years; and that the difference in emissions pathways between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 adds 5 more years to uncertainty. I am extremely skeptical of this result. To me, large variability means when a large negative swing occurs the sea ice will unexpectedly and rapidly vanish. Please donate at to support my efforts to translate complex climate science into easily understood, join-the-dots, educational videos.
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