Taipei, December 19 (CNA) The crisis between the United States and China over Taiwan has been listed as a contingency that could affect US interests by 2020, according to a survey released by an American think tank on Wednesday, although he said such a conflict was very impossible. In the annual Preventive Priority Survey released by the New York-based Center for Foreign Relations Action (CPA), American foreign policy experts assess the likelihood and impact of 30 potential conflicts that could arise or increase next year. The CPA then categorizes scenarios in three levels - high, medium and low - in order of priority for US leaders. One of the 30 possibilities identified was "the crisis between the United States and China over Taiwan, as a result of the increased political and economic pressure around the Taiwan election in 2020." However, the survey shows that the likelihood of such a scenario is "low" but if it does, the impact on the US will be "moderate," therefore, it is categorized as a Level II concern. Another contingency of US concern is the armed confrontation of the disputed maritime territory in the South China Sea between China and one or more other regional claimants, according to the survey. Taiwan is one of the plaintiffs for some or all of the South China Sea, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Such conflicts are listed as Level I problems, because they will greatly impact US interests and are likely to occur, according to the survey. In this year's survey, major homeland security issues for the US were identified as cyber attacks that severely disrupted critical infrastructure, including the electoral system, and terrorist attacks by mass casualties. The biggest US concern abroad is listed as a confrontation with Iran, North Korea or China in the South China Sea, the report shows. Since 2008, the CPA has issued an annual report in which foreign policy experts are asked to rank 30 ongoing or potential conflicts, based on how likely they are to occur or increase the following year and the likely impact on US interests.
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Taipei, December 19 (CNA) The crisis between the United States and China over Taiwan has been listed as a contingency that could affect US interests by 2020, according to a survey released by an American think tank on Wednesday, although he said such a conflict was very impossible. In the annual Preventive Priority Survey released by the New York-based Center for Foreign Relations Action (CPA), American foreign policy experts assess the likelihood and impact of 30 potential conflicts that could arise or increase next year. The CPA then categorizes scenarios in three levels - high, medium and low - in order of priority for US leaders. One of the 30 possibilities identified was "the crisis between the United States and China over Taiwan, as a result of the increased political and economic pressure around the Taiwan election in 2020." However, the survey shows that the likelihood of such a scenario is "low" but if it does, the impact on the US will be "moderate," therefore, it is categorized as a Level II concern. Another contingency of US concern is the armed confrontation of the disputed maritime territory in the South China Sea between China and one or more other regional claimants, according to the survey. Taiwan is one of the plaintiffs for some or all of the South China Sea, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Such conflicts are listed as Level I problems, because they will greatly impact US interests and are likely to occur, according to the survey. In this year's survey, major homeland security issues for the US were identified as cyber attacks that severely disrupted critical infrastructure, including the electoral system, and terrorist attacks by mass casualties. The biggest US concern abroad is listed as a confrontation with Iran, North Korea or China in the South China Sea, the report shows. Since 2008, the CPA has issued an annual report in which foreign policy experts are asked to rank 30 ongoing or potential conflicts, based on how likely they are to occur or increase the following year and the likely impact on US interests.
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